implied a decline in production activity, and (4) the rate of decline in the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) in various major countries in the world. Of these four factors, the decline in the LEI in various major countries in the world (Figure 2) was one of the main indicators showing that the pace of the global economy in the future is likely to slow. Until Quarter IV-2023, there were at least four indicators that reflected the rate of global economic slowdown, namely: (1) The movement of the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) which has slowed down since May 2023, especially the manufacturing PMI, (2) The decline in the export rate of various main countries such as China and the US, which implied a decline in world demand, (3) a decline in active job vacancies in various countries, which Figure 2. Movement Rate of Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Compared to The Economic Growth of Several Countries 2.93 (7.84) (5.0) 10.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 (10.0) (5.0) 10.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 (15.0) (10.0) 17 Jan 17 Jun 17 Nov 18 Apr 18 Sep 19 Feb 19 Jul 19 Dec 20 May 20 Oct 21 Mar 21 Aug 22 Jan 22 Jun 22 Nov 23 Apr 23 Sept LEI vs US Economic Growth #1 GDP 2022 = USD25.2 trillion (25.3%) GDP per Cap = USD76.4 thousand 2.93 (5.03) LEI (%yoy, rhs) Economic growth (5.0) 10.0 20.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 (10.0) (5.0) 10.0 20.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 (10.0) 17 Jan 17 Jun 17 Nov 18 Apr 18 Sep 19 Feb 19 Jul 19 Dec 20 May 20 Oct 21 Mar 21 Aug 22 Jan 22 Jun 22 Nov 23 Apr 23 Sept LEI vs China’s Economic Growth #2 GDP 2022 = USD17.9 trillion (17.8%) GDP per Cap = USD12.7 thousand PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 2023 Annual Report 187 Management Discussion and Analysis on Bank Performance
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